Weekly Trend

Daily Trend

Hour Trend

5 Minute Trend

UP

DOWN

UP

UP

Notes to Charts:

Broad Weekly Chart: 

• Chart puts market action since mid 1995 into perspective
• Smooth long term uptrend in MAs ended with crossover down in 2000 ( 1 )
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Note we now trading just above a major resistance area

Detailed Weekly Chart: 

• This chart zooms in on the Broad Weekly Chart
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Uptrend temporarily finds a top after Reversal Candle on March 2004 ( 3 )
• Weekly prices found support 3 times in the 50 EMA area.  Note that the MAs remained in an uptrend, despite prices falling below the 50 EMA on the second retest.  Also note the bullish green candle off of the 50 EMA on the last attempt
• Market broke out of recent trading range with a bullish green candle ( 4 ).  Market then proceeded to trade in a sideways trading range (marked by purple lines)
• Two significant periods of market pullback were support at the uptrending MAs ( 5 )
• Market finally broke out of the trading range and surged to new multi-years highs ( 6 )
• After the breakout, market continued to use the 20 week EMA as support on the trend.  This ended in May with two bearish candles to move under the 20 EMA ( 7 ).  This is a red flag to the current Weekly uptrend. 
• Despite the recent pullback the Weekly trend is still up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.  Market has rallied in the last week of June but is now approaching the 20 week EMA from below ( 8 ).  We will keep an eye on this MA for clues on the sustainability of the current uptrend
• July trends still confirms our assessment of a sideways range just below the 20 Week EMA

Daily Chart:

• This chart starts with MAs in an uptrend starting from Late 2005 with 20 EMA above the 50 EMA
• Market experienced a series of pullbacks since the breakout, finding support at the updtrending MAs
• Market Daily chart goes into a downtrend with 20 EMA crossing down below the 50 EMA ( A )
• Market traded flat to down today, still closing above the 5 day EMA ( B ) maintaining its short term uptrending bias. 
• 20 Day EMA is currently still below the 50 day EMA maintaining the Daily downtrend. D
• Due to recent market action, we have assessed that the market is in a larger sideways range below the General Resistance Area.  We will continue to watch market action near these areas 
• Stochastics have approached overbought levels ( C ) but remains in an uptrend

Hourly Chart:    

• Market pullback below the MAs and crossover down ( D ) confirms an Hourly downternd 
• Market continued with its overall hourly downtrend after taking out the recent lows.  Note the resistance the market experienced at the 20 EMA
• Market experienced a surge off the recent lows to just above the EMAs ( E ).  The overall trend remains in a downtrend however with the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA
• Market surged ahead, causing the 20 EMA to cross up through the 50 EMA indicating a new sideways to uptrend on the Hourly charts ( F). 
• After a period of sideways trading, the market made a decisive move to the upside with a  MA crossover up ( G ). 
• Despite recent pullback below the MAs ( H ), the Hourly trend still remained in an uptrend with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA
• After what looked to be a continuation of the Hourly uptrend, market turned down decisively causing a MA crossover down ( I ) indicating a new sideways to downtrend in the Hourly charts
• Recent market surge broke the Hourly downtrend with the crossover up ( J ).  We do temper our enthusiasm to the crossover up as prices are also near to the General Resistance Area Daily chart.  This could be a general resistance area to the market.  The crossover up does indicate at least a temporary break in the previous Hourly downtrend.  We will continue to watch the MAs closely
• Market experienced three crossovers indicating more of a sideways range ( K ).  Currently the MAs are in an uptrend with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA
• Today’s market action was a follow through to the current Hourly uptrend

5 Minute Chart:                                                                             
Intraday market action is currently in a sideways range.  We will watch closely for any signs of a breakout or breakdown

Assessment:

The Macro weekly uptrend is still bullish with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.   We do note a red flag to the current trend with broken support below the 20 Week EMA.  We will keep an eye on market action around the 20 EMA to monitor the sustainability if the current uptrend.

The longer term trend is now bearish with the  20 EMA below the 50 EMA on the Daily chart.  The MA crossover down notes the break previous Daily uptrend.  Due to recent market action (choppy action above and below the MAs), we have assessed that the market is in a larger sideways range below the General Resistance Area.    We will continue to watch market action near these areas with extreme caution to the long side as we approach the recent trend break area.

The short term trend is currently sideways to up with the  20 hour EMA above the 50 hour EMA.   This is confirmed by the short term factors on the Daily chart with prices above the 5 day EMA and Stochastics in an uptrend.  We will continue with the sideways  to uptrending bias while keeping our eye on the area of the General Resistance Area on the Daily Chart.  The General Resistance Area could be a general resistance area even for the short term.  We will watch these signals very closely for any changes in the current trend.   

We now have conflicting trends between short and long term trends.  Due to the mixed signals, we will remain conservative will looking for opportunities on both sides of the market.  We will stay clear of any long positions as we approach the General Resistance Area on the Daily chart.

These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.

Trading Recap:

It was another choppy month of trading in July.  Countertrends and Earnings volatility paved the way for a lot of whipsaw action and tough trading conditions.  This ultimately weighed in our Swing Trading performance with losses totaling 2.26 points for 10.23%.  Despite this month’s setback, Monthly performance averages are still at a healthy 8.89% for 4.14 points.

Day Trading had a rough start to the month but ended the month on fire.   Gains for the month totaled 11.00 points for 26.35%.  Monthly averages are at an astounding 34.83% for 13.48 points.  Our streak of 100% winning months continues.

Day Trading Limited had modestly performing month.  Gains for the month totaled 1.00% for 0.30 in point profits.  This service is great for any and all traders, but is most popular with traders who have only limited access to the intraday markets.  We are also enjoying 100% in winning months so far with this service.

E-minis added on to previous months gains with profits of $650.00.  We started the month off hot pulling in gains of nearly 10% but fizzled in the last week.  Still a plus month with just 5 red days.  Overall pretty good.  Stay tuned for news on when the room will once again be available for Futures traders.

Here is a recap of the performance numbers:

We want to inform traders that we are in the most difficult trading period of the year with the summer months.  We urge traders to be conservative, patient and disciplined with their trading until trading conditions improve.  These are the essentials for long term trading success.