Weekly Trend

Daily Trend

Hour Trend

5 Minute Trend

UP

DOWN

UP

UP

Notes to Charts:

Broad Weekly Chart: 

• Chart puts market action since mid 1995 into perspective
• Smooth long term uptrend in MAs ended with crossover down in 2000 ( 1 )
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Note we now trading just above a major resistance area

Detailed Weekly Chart: 

• This chart zooms in on the Broad Weekly Chart
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Uptrend temporarily finds a top after Reversal Candle on March 2004 ( 3 )
• Weekly prices found support 3 times in the 50 EMA area.  Note that the MAs remained in an uptrend, despite prices falling below the 50 EMA on the second retest.  Also note the bullish green candle off of the 50 EMA on the last attempt
• Market broke out of recent trading range with a bullish green candle ( 4 ).  Market then proceeded to trade in a sideways trading range (marked by purple lines)
• Two significant periods of market pullback were support at the uptrending MAs ( 5 )
• Market finally broke out of the trading range and surged to new multi-years highs ( 6 )
• After the breakout, market continued to use the 20 week EMA as support on the trend.  This ended in May with two bearish candles to move under the 20 EMA ( 7 ).  This is a red flag to the current Weekly uptrend. 
• Despite the recent pullback the Weekly trend is still up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.  Market has rallied in the last week of June but is now approaching the 20 week EMA from below ( 8 ).  We will keep an eye on this MA for clues on the sustainability of the current utprend

Daily Chart:

• This Daily chart here begins in a trading range which started back in late 2004.
• MAs went into an uptrend at ( A ) with the MA crossover up.  This marked the start of the uptrend which ultimately lead to new multi-year highs
• Market experienced a series of pullbacks since the breakout, finding support at the updtrending MAs
• Market traded sideways to slightly down today but still closed above the 5 day EMA ( B ) maintaining an uptrending bias. 
• 20 Day EMA has come down through the 50 day EMA resulting in a new Daily downtrend.  We will also keep our eyes on the downtrending MAs for possible signs of resistance 
• Stochastics have come up through the oversold 20 line and remains in an uptrend  ( C ).  This is a short term bullish sign

Hourly Chart:    

• Market fell decisively near multi-year highs causing the 20 EMA to cross down below the 50 EMA ( D ).  The lack of follow through and subsequent change in hourly trend is characteristic of a false breakout. 
• Market confirmed that false breakout with a steep trend to the downside.  Note the smooth trend under the 20 hour EMA
• Market has rallied up to the 20 EMA on several attempts but the downtrend remained in tact with the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA. 
• Recent market rally has MAs crossed up into an uptrend ( E ).  Due to the downtrending Daily MAs, we do note this crossover up more as a slight sideways to uptrend rather than a reason to be bullish
• Market pullback below the MAs and crossover down ( F ) confirming our assessment that the MA trend break was more of a sideways rather than uptrend. 
• Market continued with its overall hourly downtrend after taking out the recent lows.  Note the resistance the market experienced at the 20 EMA
• Market experienced a surge off the recent lows to just above the EMAs ( G ).  The overall trend remains in a downtrend however with the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA
• Market surged ahead, causing the 20 EMA to cross up through the 50 EMA indicating a new sideways to uptrend on the Hourly charts ( H ). 
• After a period of sideways trading, the market made a decisive move to the upside with a  MA crossover up ( I ).  Market action today was a noted as sideways trading in the current uptrend

5 Minute Chart:                                                                             

• MAs remain in an uptrend after breaking out of the intraday trading range at point ( J )

Assessment:

The Macro weekly uptrend is still bullish with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.   We do note a red flag to the current trend with broken support below the 20 Week EMA.  We will keep an eye on market action around the 20 EMA to monitor the sustainability if the current uptrend.

The longer term trend is now bearish with the  20 EMA below the 50 EMA on the Daily chart.  We will keep our eyes on the 20 day EMA to note possible resistance areas on any countertrends.

The short term trend is bullish with the  20 hour EMA above the 50 hour EMA.  The short term indicators from the Daily chart are also confirming this trend with prices above the 5 day EMA and Stochastics in an uptrend.  Despite the uptrending bias, we will watch action around the Downtrending MAs on the Daily chart as possible areas of resistance.  We will watch the Hourly MAs carefully for any signs of a change in trend. 

We now have conflicting trends between short and long term trends.  With the conflicting trends we will keep our trading conservative while looking for opportunities on both sides of the market.  We will approach our Swing Trades with a slight bias to the long side of the market.

These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.

Trading Recap:

It was a choppy market for the month of June.  Despite the wide fluctuations, the broader market ended virtually flat with gains of just one tenth of a point.  Although we are happy to outperform the market, it wasn’t by much with gains of just 0.26% for a negative 0.48 points.  Swing Trading monthly averages are still performing nicely with gains of  4.35 points for 9.53% gains.

Day Trading had another great month of gains.  Gains on the month totaled 25.74% for 11.36 in point profits.  This helps to keep our Monthly average gains which are still riding high at 35.20% for 13.59 points.  Our streak of 100% winning months continues.

Day Trading Limited had another solid performing month since it began in January of this year.  Gains for the month totaled 3.50% for 2.14 in point profits.  This service is great for any and all traders, but is most popular with traders who have only limited access to the intraday markets.  We are also enjoying 100% in winning months so far with this service.

E-minis added on to previous months gains with profits of $962.50.  Over 80% in winning days for the month.  Stay tuned for news on when the room will once again be available for Futures traders.

We want to inform traders that we are heading into the most difficult trading period of the year with the summer months.  We urge traders to be conservative, patient and disciplined with their trading until trading conditions improve.  These are the essentials for long term trading success.

Here is a recap of the performance numbers: