Weekly Trend

Daily Trend

Hour Trend

5 Minute Trend

UP

UP

UP

DOWN

Notes to Charts:

Broad Weekly Chart: 

• Chart puts market action since mid 1995 into perspective
• Smooth long term uptrend in MAs ended with crossover down in 2000 ( 1 )
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Note we now trading just above a major resistance area

Detailed Weekly Chart: 

• This chart zooms in on the Broad Weekly Chart
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Uptrend temporarily finds a top after Reversal Candle on March 2004 ( 3 )
• Weekly prices found support 3 times in the 50 EMA area.  Note that the MAs remained in an uptrend, despite prices falling below the 50 EMA on the second retest.  Also note the bullish green candle off of the 50 EMA on the last attempt
• Market broke out of recent trading range with a bullish green candle ( 4 ).  Market then proceeded to trade in a sideways trading range (marked by purple lines)
• Two significant periods of market pullback were support at the uptrending MAs ( 5 )
• Market finally broke out of the trading range and surged to new multi-years highs ( 6 )
• After nearly a month of sideways trading above the 5 week EMA, market closed, just under the 5 week EMA ( 7 ), signaling a little caution to the current uptrend.  This was followed by a very quick reversal at the 20 week EMA and eventual surge to new trend highs.  The recent bottom points to a significant area of support.  A break of the bottom at the 20 week EMA could an early change in trend.  We will keep a very close watch at this support area noted at point ( 7 )
• Market action this month continued with a nice trend above the 5 week EMA

Daily Chart:

• This Daily chart here defines the trading range the market which started back in November 2004
• MAs went into an uptrend at ( A ) with the MA crossover up.  This marked the start of the uptrend which ultimately lead to new multi-year highs
• Recent pullback in the market was supported right at the MAs ( B ). 
• 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, representing a Daily Chart downtrend at point ( C ). 
• Market EMAs (20 and 50 EMA) have crossed up, putting the Daily chart back into an uptrend ( D )
• Market reversed the first trading day in January with a surge off of its 50 day EMA, to keep the uptrend in tact
• After a market top in Mid January, market has pulled back to the uptrending MAs in two waves.  Recent market action has several bullish green candles surging above the MAs.  We will watch the year highs carefully for signs of a continuation of the current uptrend.
• Market traded sideways today, still closing above its 5 day EMA ( E ) maintaining its current short term uptrending bias.  Markets also closed just off multi-year highs
• Stochastics are in a downtrend having crossed down through the overbought 80 line ( F ).  This is a red flag to the current hourly uptrend

Hourly Chart:    

• MAs crossed up from the middle of the trading range indicating the start of the trend to new multi-year highs ( G).
• Market went on to surge to new multi-year highs at point ( H )
• After a consolidation to the 20 hour EMA, market surged ahead to new Multi-year highs  but quickly fell below the MAs.  This marked the start of a sideways trading range
• After an intraday surge to new Multi-Year highs ( I ), the market plunged down to the lower end of the recent trading range for a very bearish sign.  MAs confirmed by going into a downtrend with the 20 EMA crossing below the 50 EMA ( J ). 
• Market continued on with its downtrend by breaking through to new trend lows ( K ).  This was, however, followed up with a surge above the 20 EMA, and a smooth trend above the MAs.  This is an early sign of a reversal. 
• The 20 EMA has crossed up above the 50 EMA, indicating a new Hourly uptrend ( L ). 
• Market pulled back to the bottom end of the recent trading range, then quickly reversed to surge back above the uptrending MAs ( M ).  The 20 EMA remains above the 50 EMA, keeping the uptrend in tact.  Market is now testing the multi-year high area ( N ), with a sideways trend above the 20 EMA.  We will watch these levels carefully for any breakouts to the upside

5 Minute Chart:                                                                             

• Market still trading in a sideways intraday range.  We will watch carefully for any breakout in either direction

Assessment:

The Macro weekly uptrend is still bullish with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.   Market is coming off a nice reversal at its 20 week EMA.  We will keep a close eye at the recent bottom at the 20 EMA to ensure the current trend is still in tact.  A breach of the support could signal an early change in the larger trend.

The longer term trend is up with the 20 EMA up above the 50 EMA on the Daily chart.  Market has once again found support at the uptrending MAs with a bullish green candle.  We will continue to watch market action around the 20 EMA closely for clues as to the sustainability of the current Daily uptrend.  Current prices are at the 20 day EMA.

The short term trend is bullish with the 20 Hour EMA remaining above the 50 Hour EMA.  This is confirmed by the Daily chart with prices closing above the 5 day EMA.  We do note one red flag with Daily stochastics entering into a new downtrend.  We will continue to monitor the MAs carefully for any changes in trend.

We now have confirming signals between short term and long term trends, however due to the mixed signals we are getting from the hourly charts, we will remain conservative with our trading while looking for opportunities on both sides of the market.

These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.

Trading Recap:

Market continued to trade in a challenging sideways range for the entire month of April.  Unsustainable trends took a toll on our performance as we post losses of 16.95%.  Point losses totaled 15.50 points, most in part due to 1 trade in CME that was stopped out (high priced stock).  This underperformed the SPX which gained 15.75 points or 1.22%.  Monthly average still remains at a healthy 4.19 points for 9.38% gains.

Day Trading also experienced a tough month, recording its lowest performance gain since its launch back in 2004.  Gains on the month totaled 12.70% for 4.42 in point profits.  Monthly average gains are still at an astonishing 35.24% for 13.64 points.  Our streak of 100% winning months continues.

Day Trading Limited had a slow month of trades due to the range trading market.  Gains for the month totaled 1.51% for 0.70 in point profits.  This service is great for any and all traders, but is most popular with traders who have only limited access to the intraday markets.  100% winning months so far with this service.

E-minis had a tough month of trading.   Range trading got the best of this service as we end the month with a loss of 812.50.  Despite this, traders are gaining valuable insight to the different trends in the intraday market.

Here is a recap of the performance numbers: