Weekly Trend

Daily Trend

Hour Trend

5 Minute Trend

UP

UP

DOWN

DOWN

Notes to Charts:

Broad Weekly Chart: 

• Chart puts market action since mid 1995 into perspective
• Smooth long term uptrend in MAs ended with crossover down in 2000 ( 1 )
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Note we now trading just above a major resistance area

Detailed Weekly Chart: 

• This chart zooms in on the Broad Weekly Chart
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Uptrend temporarily finds a top after Reversal Candle on March 2004 ( 3 )
• Weekly prices found support 3 times in the 50 EMA area.  Note that the MAs remained in an uptrend, despite prices falling below the 50 EMA on the second retest.  Also note the bullish green candle off of the 50 EMA on the last attempt
• Market broke out of recent trading range with a bullish green candle ( 4 ).  Market then proceeded to trade in a sideways trading range (marked by purple lines)
• Two significant periods of market pullback were support at the uptrending MAs ( 5 )
• Market finally broke out of the trading range and surged to new multi-years highs ( 6 )
• After nearly a month of sideways trading above the 5 week EMA, market closed, just under the 5 week EMA ( 7 ), signaling a little caution to the current uptrend.  This was followed by a very quick reversal at the 20 week EMA and eventual surge to new trend highs.  The recent bottom points to a significant area of support.  A break of the bottom at the 20 week EMA could an early change in trend.  We will keep a very close watch at this support area noted at point ( 7 )
• Market action this month continued with a nice trend above the 5 week EMA

Daily Chart:

• This Daily chart here defines the trading range the market which started back in November 2004
• MAs went into an uptrend at ( A ) with the MA crossover up.  This marked the start of the uptrend which ultimately lead to new multi-year highs
• Recent pullback in the market was supported right at the MAs ( B ). 
• 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, representing a Daily Chart downtrend at point ( C ). 
• Market EMAs (20 and 50 EMA) have crossed up, putting the Daily chart back into an uptrend ( D )
• Market reversed the first trading day in January with a surge off of its 50 day EMA, to keep the uptrend in tact
• After a market top in Mid January, market has pulled back to the uptrending MAs in two waves.  Recent market action has several bullish green candles surging above the MAs.  We will watch the year highs carefully for signs of a continuation of the current uptrend
• Market fell today to close below its 5 day EMA ( E ) changing its short term bias to a downtrend.  We still have our eye on the 20 day EMA for clues on the sustainability of the uptrend on the Daily chart
• Stochastics have come down through the overbought line ( F ) for a short term bearish signal

Hourly Chart:    

• Market quickly moved to the top end of the recent range and has MAs in an uptrend in early January
• After a few days of trading at the 20 hour EMA, market fell to close below all the MAs.  MAs crossed over down into a new Hourly Downtrend with the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA ( G ) .  
• The Double bottom ( H ) was confirmed after the MA crossover up ( I ), indicating a new Hourly uptrend
• Soon after the new Hourly uptrend, MAs did a crossover down at point ( J ), indicating a sideways range as noted by the frequent MA crossover 
• Market returned to a uptrend  after a few days of sideways trading with crossover up ( K )
• After holding a nice trend above the MAs, market pierced through to new multi-year highs ( P ).  However, subsequent market action is signaling a possible false breakout with the pullback into the trading range. 
• After two attempts at the resistance area, market has pulled back causing an MA crossover down ( M ), confirming a failed breakout attempt
• After a few trading days of consolidation in the middle of the recent trading range, market has surged ahead to change the MAs into an uptend with a crossover up ( N ).
• Market went on to surge to new multi-year highs at point ( O )
• After a consolidation to the 20 hour EMA, market surged ahead to new Multi-year highs ( P ) but quickly fell below the MAs.  This marked the start of a sideways trading range
• Market closed the day at the bottom end of the recent range.  We do note an early MA crossover down ( Q ).  We do not put too much weight behind this yet as we are still in a trading range, but we will keep an eye on it as we move forward

5 Minute Chart: 

• Overall intraday range remains in a sideways trend

Assessment:

The Macro weekly uptrend is still bullish with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.   Market is coming off a nice reversal at its 20 week EMA.  We will keep a close eye at the recent bottom at the 20 EMA to ensure the current trend is still in tact.  A breach of the support could signal an early change in the larger trend.

The longer term trend is up with the 20 EMA up above the 50 EMA on the Daily chart.  Market pulled back to test the 20 day EMA and reversed with a bullish breakout candle.  We will keep an eye on the recent bottom for intermediate support to the current uptrend.

The short term trend is now sideways to down with the 20 Hour EMA crossing down below the 50 Hour EMA.  This is confirmed with Daily prices closing below the 5 day EMA and Daily stochastics in a downtrend.  We would like to caution that the Hourly chart is still in a trading range where the MAs are not as significant however, the downtrend is noted.

We now have conflicting signals short term and long term trends. With slightly conflicting signals I the short term trend we will remain conservative while looking for opportunities on both sides of the market.

These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.

Trading Recap:

Despite the tight range of the market, March provided a lot of volatility for our trading.  We started off hot with nice solid winners, but gave back much of the gains to close out the end of the month. For the month results ended nearly flat at less than 1% for less than 1 point loss.  This underperformed the SPX which gained 14.20 points or 1.11%.  Monthly average still remains at a healthy 4.91 points for 10.35% gains.

Day Trading services logged in a great month of trading.  Gains on the month totaled 43.00% for 20.73 in point profits.  This now pushes our monthly averages up to 36.37% for 14.10 points 

As mentioned last month we launched two new services:  Day Trading Limited and E-minis Futures

Day Trading Limited had a nice month of gains as well.  Gains for the month totaled 2.40% for 0.88 in point profits.  This service is great for any and all traders, but is most popular with traders who have only limited access to the intraday markets.

E-minis service was just like our swing trading, which started off hot but ended with losses.  Setback for the month totaled $712.50 for 14.25 points.

Here is a recap of the performance numbers: