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AGO (long) - Stochastic Reversal
Larry Swing - March 28, 2006


Assured Guaranty, Ltd. (AGO) provides credit enhancement products.


Key Information:

 

Fundamental:

Sector:  Financial

Industry:  Life Insurance


Liquidity:

Market Capitalization:  $1.88 billion

Average daily volume (3-month): 116 thousand shares

Closing Stock Price: $25.00


Risk Proxies:

52-week high / 52-week low:  1.58

Beta (3-month): 1.87

Debt/Equity: 0.12

Profitable:  Yes


Valuation:

Price/Sales:  6.38

Price/Book:  1.12

Price/Earnings:  9.88

Price/2007 Analyst Earnings Estimates: 10.42


Technical Analysis

 

AGO has fallen quite steadily this month.  However, signs of a reversal appeared Monday:

  • The stock gapped up, tested support and closed near the highs of the day
  • The fast stochastic indicator crossed above the slow stochastic indicator in oversold territory

We believe current levels provide a relatively low-risk entry because strong support is nearby.


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Key Levels


Buy:  Market

Bullish stochastic crossover


Stop loss: 24.49

Below the recent lows


Target:  26.74

Slightly below the highs of 2006.



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